Krahasoni metodat

	Modeli ARCH (Heteroskedasticiteti i kushtëzuar Autoregresiv)	Modeli GARCH (Parashikimi i Volatilitetit)	Modeli TGARCH (Threshold GARCH)
Fusha	Ekonometri	Ekonometri	Ekonometri
Familja	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Viti i origjinës	1982	1986	1993-1994
Krijuesi	Robert F. Engle	Tim Bollerslev	Zakoian (1994); Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (1993)
Lloji	Conditional volatility model	Conditional volatility model	Asymmetric volatility model
Burimi themelues	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.	Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931-955.
Emërtime të tjera	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)	Threshold GARCH, TGARCH, GJR-GARCH, asymmetric GARCH
Të lidhura	6	5	6
Përmbledhja	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.	The Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model extends the standard GARCH framework by allowing positive and negative return shocks to have asymmetric effects on conditional variance. Negative shocks — bad news — typically amplify volatility more than positive shocks of the same magnitude, a stylised fact known as the leverage effect. TGARCH captures this asymmetry through a threshold indicator that switches on when the previous period's shock was negative.