Krahasoni metodat

	Modeli ARCH (Heteroskedasticiteti i kushtëzuar Autoregresiv)	Modeli ARIMA (Autoregresiv i Integruar Mesatar Lëvizës)	Modeli EGARCH (Exponential GARCH)
Fusha	Ekonometri	Ekonometri	Ekonometri
Familja	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Viti i origjinës	1982	1970	1991
Krijuesi	Robert F. Engle	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	Daniel B. Nelson
Lloji	Conditional volatility model	Time series forecasting model	Volatility / conditional variance model
Burimi themelues	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370.
Emërtime të tjera	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	Exponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH
Të lidhura	6	6	6
Përmbledhja	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets.