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| Bayesovské skladanie (Bayesian stacking ensemble)× | Bayesovské spriemerovanie modelov× | |
|---|---|---|
| Odbor≠ | Strojové učenie | Bayesovské metódy |
| Rodina≠ | Machine learning | Bayesian methods |
| Rok vzniku≠ | 2018 | 1999 |
| Tvorca≠ | Yao, Y.; Vehtari, A.; Simpson, D.; Gelman, A. | Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery & Volinsky |
| Typ≠ | Bayesian ensemble combination | Bayesian model averaging |
| Pôvodný zdroj≠ | Yao, Y., Vehtari, A., Simpson, D., & Gelman, A. (2018). Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions. Bayesian Analysis, 13(3), 917–1007. DOI ↗ | Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E. & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–401. link ↗ |
| Ďalšie názvy≠ | Bayesian stacking, Bayesian model stacking, stacking with Bayesian weights, predictive distribution stacking | BMA, Bayesian model combination, Bayesian Model Ortalaması (BMA) |
| Príbuzné≠ | 6 | 5 |
| Zhrnutie≠ | Bayesian stacking combines the predictive distributions of several base models by finding non-negative weights that maximise the leave-one-out log predictive score of the mixture. Formalised by Yao, Vehtari, Simpson, and Gelman (2018), it yields a single calibrated predictive distribution that is provably at least as good as any single constituent model under cross-validation. | Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), formalised as a tutorial by Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery and Volinsky in 1999, addresses model uncertainty by averaging over all plausible model specifications rather than selecting a single best model. Each candidate model receives a posterior probability that reflects how well it fits the data given a prior, and predictions or coefficient estimates are formed as weighted averages across the entire model space. This approach reduces the bias and overconfidence that arise when a single selected model is treated as the true one. |
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