Сравнение методов

	Тест Дибольда-Мариано на равенство точности прогнозов	Тест Песарана-Тиммермана на точность предсказания направления
Область	Эконометрика	Эконометрика
Семейство	Hypothesis test	Hypothesis test
Год появления	1995	1992
Автор метода	Francis Diebold & Roberto Mariano	M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann
Тип	Non-parametric forecast comparison test	Nonparametric one-sided test
Основополагающий источник	Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 253–263.	Pesaran, M. H., & Timmermann, A. (1992). A simple nonparametric test of predictive performance. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(4), 461–465.
Другие названия	DM Test, Test of Equal Forecast Accuracy, Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test, Tahmin Doğruluğu Eşitliği Testi	PT Test, Directional Accuracy Test, Nonparametric Predictive Performance Test, Pesaran-Timmermann Yön Testi
Связанные	3	3
Сводка	The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test, introduced by Diebold and Mariano in 1995, is a widely used non-parametric procedure for formally comparing the predictive accuracy of two competing forecasting models. It evaluates whether the difference in forecast errors between two models is statistically significant, without requiring nested models or specific distributional assumptions about the forecasts, making it broadly applicable across economics, finance, and time-series analysis.	Introduced by Pesaran and Timmermann (1992), the PT test is a nonparametric procedure that evaluates whether a forecasting model correctly predicts the direction (sign) of a target variable more often than would be expected by chance. It is widely used in financial econometrics and macroeconomic forecasting to assess the practical utility of a model beyond simple error metrics, particularly when the economic cost of getting the direction wrong is high.