Compară metode

	Modelul ARCH Robust	Model GARCH (Prognoza volatilității)
Domeniu	Econometrie	Econometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Anul apariției	2002–2008	1986
Autorul original	Engle (1982) for ARCH; robust variants developed by Muler, Yohai, and others from the early 2000s	Tim Bollerslev
Tip	Volatility / conditional heteroscedasticity model	Conditional volatility model
Sursa seminală	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
Denumiri alternative	robust ARCH, outlier-robust ARCH, heavy-tailed ARCH, robust conditional volatility model	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
Înrudite	6	5
Rezumat	The Robust ARCH model extends the classical Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework by replacing the standard maximum-likelihood estimator with robust alternatives that downweight or eliminate the influence of outliers. This makes volatility estimates resistant to extreme observations that frequently contaminate financial and macroeconomic time series.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.