Compară metode
Examinează metodele selectate una lângă alta; rândurile care diferă sunt evidențiate.
| Modelul ARIMA (Autoregresiv Integrat cu Medii Mobile)× | Model GARCH (Prognoza volatilității)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Domeniu | Econometrie | Econometrie |
| Familie | Regression model | Regression model |
| Anul apariției≠ | 2015 | 1986 |
| Autorul original≠ | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Tim Bollerslev |
| Tip≠ | Univariate time-series model | Conditional volatility model |
| Sursa seminală≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗ |
| Denumiri alternative≠ | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini) |
| Înrudite | 5 | 5 |
| Rezumat≠ | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series. |
| ScholarGateSet de date ↗ |
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