Comparar métodos

	Microsimulação Estocástica	Modelo de Markov Estocástico
Área	Simulação	Simulação
Família	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Ano de origem	1957	1993
Autor original	Guy H. Orcutt	Markov, A. A. (probabilistic extension developed by Sonnenberg & Beck and others)
Tipo	Stochastic individual-level simulation	Probabilistic state-transition model with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
Fonte seminal	Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123.	Sonnenberg, F. A., & Beck, J. R. (1993). Markov models in medical decision making: A practical guide. Medical Decision Making, 13(4), 322–338.
Outros nomes	Probabilistic Microsimulation, Monte Carlo Microsimulation, Stochastic Micro-simulation, SMSM	Probabilistic Markov Model, Stochastic Markov Chain, SMM, Monte Carlo Markov Model
Relacionados	6	6
Resumo	Stochastic Microsimulation tracks a large population of individual units — people, households, or firms — through time by applying random draws from empirically estimated probability distributions at each transition event. Unlike deterministic counterparts, every state change is decided by chance, preserving realistic heterogeneity and allowing rigorous uncertainty quantification across multiple simulation runs.	A Stochastic Markov Model is a simulation technique that represents a system as a set of mutually exclusive health or decision states, moves a cohort (or individual agents) through those states using probabilistically sampled transition parameters, and aggregates outcomes across thousands of Monte Carlo iterations to produce full probability distributions over costs, outcomes, or rankings rather than single point estimates.