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Model Robust GARCH×Model ARCH (Autoregresywna Heteroskedastyczność Warunkowa)×Model GARCH (Prognozowanie zmienności)×
DziedzinaEkonometriaEkonometriaEkonometria
RodzinaRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
Rok powstania1986–201319821986
TwórcaBoudt, Danielsson & Laurent (robust extensions); Bollerslev (standard GARCH, 1986)Robert F. EngleTim Bollerslev
TypVolatility modelConditional volatility modelConditional volatility model
Źródło pierwotneBoudt, K., Danielsson, J., & Laurent, S. (2013). Robust forecasting of dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(2), 244–257. DOI ↗Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. DOI ↗Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗
Inne nazwyRobust GARCH, outlier-robust GARCH, heavy-tail GARCH, contamination-robust volatility modelARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance modelGARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
Pokrewne565
PodsumowanieThe Robust GARCH model extends the classical GARCH framework to handle outliers and heavy-tailed innovations that commonly appear in financial return series. By down-weighting extreme observations through a robust innovation term, it produces more reliable volatility forecasts when data contain jumps, crises, or other anomalies that would otherwise distort standard GARCH estimates.The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.
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