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Model ARCH odporny na wartości odstające×Model ARCH (Autoregresywna Heteroskedastyczność Warunkowa)×Model EGARCH (Exponential GARCH)×
DziedzinaEkonometriaEkonometriaEkonometria
RodzinaRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
Rok powstania2002–200819821991
TwórcaEngle (1982) for ARCH; robust variants developed by Muler, Yohai, and others from the early 2000sRobert F. EngleDaniel B. Nelson
TypVolatility / conditional heteroscedasticity modelConditional volatility modelVolatility / conditional variance model
Źródło pierwotneEngle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. DOI ↗Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. DOI ↗Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370. DOI ↗
Inne nazwyrobust ARCH, outlier-robust ARCH, heavy-tailed ARCH, robust conditional volatility modelARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance modelExponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH
Pokrewne666
PodsumowanieThe Robust ARCH model extends the classical Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework by replacing the standard maximum-likelihood estimator with robust alternatives that downweight or eliminate the influence of outliers. This makes volatility estimates resistant to extreme observations that frequently contaminate financial and macroeconomic time series.The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets.
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