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| Model ARIMA (Autoregresyjny Zintegrowany Model Średniej Ruchomej)× | Model SARIMA× | |
|---|---|---|
| Dziedzina | Ekonometria | Ekonometria |
| Rodzina | Regression model | Regression model |
| Rok powstania≠ | 1970 | 1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised) |
| Twórca≠ | George Box and Gwilym Jenkins | Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel |
| Typ≠ | Time series forecasting model | Seasonal time series model |
| Źródło pierwotne≠ | Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day. link ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744 |
| Inne nazwy | ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q) | SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component |
| Pokrewne≠ | 6 | 5 |
| Podsumowanie≠ | The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics. | SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics. |
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