Time series Bayesian model averaging
Time series Bayesian model averaging (TS-BMA) combines forecasts from an ensemble of time series models — such as AR, VAR, or state-space specifications — by weighting each model by its posterior probability given observed data. Rather than selecting one model and discarding uncertainty about which model is best, TS-BMA integrates over model uncertainty, producing forecasts that are more robust and better calibrated than any single model alone.
Kilderegister
Siteringer kopiert ordrett fra metodens kilderegister. Ingen påstandsnivåverifisering er underforstått fra dem.
- Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E., & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–401. · URL
- Raftery, A. E., Kárný, M., & Ettler, P. (2010). Online prediction under model uncertainty via dynamic model averaging: Application to a cold rolling mill. Technometrics, 52(1), 52–66. · DOI 10.1198/TECH.2009.08104
Kuraterte påstander
Påstander lagret i bevishovedboken, hver med sin egen vurdering.
Denne visningen finner ikke opp en påstandsvurdering når hovedboken ikke har noen.
Relaterte metoder
Generert fra metodegrafen og vist som maskinforslåtte relasjoner – ingen bevispåstand er underforstått.