Methoden vergelijken

	ARCH-LM-toets voor volatiliteitsclustering	Exponential GARCH (EGARCH)	Markov Regime-Switching Model (MS-AR / MS-VAR)
Vakgebied	Econometrie	Econometrie	Econometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Jaar van ontstaan	1982	1991	1989
Grondlegger	Robert F. Engle	Nelson	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)
Type	Lagrange multiplier diagnostic test for conditional heteroscedasticity	Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)	Regime-switching time series model
Oorspronkelijke bron	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007.	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Aliassen	ARCH-LM Testi ve Volatilite Kümelenmesi Analizi, ARCH LM test, Engle's ARCH test, test for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity	exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR
Verwant	6	4	5
Samenvatting	The ARCH-LM test is Robert Engle's (1982) Lagrange multiplier diagnostic for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the residuals of a fitted time-series model. It checks whether the error variance changes over time and clusters into calm and turbulent periods, and it is the standard pre-test run before fitting a GARCH-family volatility model.	EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.