Bandingkan kaedah
Semak kaedah pilihan anda secara bersebelahan; baris yang berbeza akan diserlahkan.
| Pemerataan Eksponensial Mudah dan Berganda (SES / Holt)× | Penghalusan Eksponensial Tiga Holt-Winters× | |
|---|---|---|
| Bidang | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik |
| Keluarga | Regression model | Regression model |
| Tahun asal≠ | 1957 | 1960 |
| Pengasas≠ | Robert G. Brown (SES); Charles C. Holt (linear trend) | Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters |
| Jenis | Exponential smoothing forecasting model | Exponential smoothing forecasting model |
| Sumber perintis≠ | Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control. McGraw-Hill. link ↗ | Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342. DOI ↗ |
| Alias | SES, Holt's linear trend method, exponential smoothing forecasting, Basit ve Çift Üstel Düzleştirme (SES / Holt) | triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme |
| Berkaitan≠ | 3 | 4 |
| Ringkasan≠ | Exponential smoothing is a family of basic time-series forecasting models in which each new observation updates a smoothed estimate by a weighting parameter. Simple exponential smoothing (SES), introduced by Robert G. Brown in 1959, forecasts series with a stable level, while Holt's double exponential smoothing, introduced by Charles C. Holt in 1957, adds a trend term using the parameters alpha and beta. | Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series. |
| ScholarGateSet data ↗ |
|
|