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Pemerataan Eksponensial Mudah dan Berganda (SES / Holt)×Penghalusan Eksponensial Tiga Holt-Winters×
BidangEkonometrikEkonometrik
KeluargaRegression modelRegression model
Tahun asal19571960
PengasasRobert G. Brown (SES); Charles C. Holt (linear trend)Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters
JenisExponential smoothing forecasting modelExponential smoothing forecasting model
Sumber perintisBrown, R. G. (1959). Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control. McGraw-Hill. link ↗Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342. DOI ↗
AliasSES, Holt's linear trend method, exponential smoothing forecasting, Basit ve Çift Üstel Düzleştirme (SES / Holt)triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme
Berkaitan34
RingkasanExponential smoothing is a family of basic time-series forecasting models in which each new observation updates a smoothed estimate by a weighting parameter. Simple exponential smoothing (SES), introduced by Robert G. Brown in 1959, forecasts series with a stable level, while Holt's double exponential smoothing, introduced by Charles C. Holt in 1957, adds a trend term using the parameters alpha and beta.Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series.
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ScholarGateBandingkan kaedah: Exponential Smoothing · Holt-Winters. Dicapai 2026-06-18 daripada https://scholargate.app/ms/compare