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Teori Kerugian×Teori Nilai Extrem (EVT)×Persamaan Pembezaan Stokastik (SDEs)×
BidangSains AktuariKewanganSimulasi
KeluargaRegression modelRegression modelProcess / pipeline
Tahun asal201020011944 (theory); 1992 (numerical framework)
PengasasFilip Lundberg; Harald CramérColes (textbook treatment); McNeil, Frey & EmbrechtsKiyosi Itô (Itô calculus, 1944); Peter Kloeden & Eckhard Platen (numerical methods, 1992)
JenisStochastic risk process modelTail / extreme-event modelContinuous-time stochastic process model
Sumber perintisAsmussen, S., & Albrecher, H. (2010). Ruin Probabilities (2nd ed.). World Scientific. ISBN: 978-981-4282-52-9Coles, S. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer. ISBN: 978-1852334598Øksendal, B. (2003). Stochastic Differential Equations: An Introduction with Applications (6th ed.). Springer. DOI ↗
AliasCollective Risk Theory, Cramér-Lundberg Theory, Probability of Ruin Analysis, Hasar Süreci Çöküş TeorisiEVT, generalized extreme value, generalized Pareto distribution, peaks over thresholdSDE, Itô equations, Stokastik Diferansiyel Denklemler (SDE)
Berkaitan354
RingkasanRuin Theory models the stochastic surplus process of an insurance company to quantify the probability that accumulated losses eventually exceed available capital. Introduced by Filip Lundberg in his 1903 doctoral thesis and rigorously unified by Harald Cramér in 1930, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes premiums arrive at a constant rate, claims follow a compound Poisson process, and individual claim sizes are independent and identically distributed. It remains the foundational framework of collective risk theory in actuarial science.Extreme Value Theory is a statistical framework for modelling the rare events that live in the tail of a probability distribution. As developed in Coles (2001) and applied to risk by McNeil, Frey & Embrechts (2005), it offers two standard routes: the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for block maxima and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), used in the peaks-over-threshold approach, for exceedances above a high threshold.Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are differential equation models that combine a deterministic drift term — governing the average tendency of a system — with a stochastic diffusion term driven by a Wiener process (Brownian motion). Pioneered through Itô calculus by Kiyosi Itô in 1944 and given a comprehensive numerical treatment by Kloeden and Platen in 1992, SDEs are the standard modelling language for continuous-time systems subject to random noise, including financial asset prices, population dynamics, and physical processes.
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ScholarGateBandingkan kaedah: Ruin Theory · Extreme Value Theory · Stochastic Differential Equations. Dicapai 2026-06-19 daripada https://scholargate.app/ms/compare