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| Ujian Diebold-Mariano untuk Ketepatan Ramalan yang Sama× | Ujian Keupayaan Ramalan Bersyarat Giacomini-White× | Regresi Langkah Demi Langkah× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bidang≠ | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik | Statistik |
| Keluarga≠ | Hypothesis test | Hypothesis test | Regression model |
| Tahun asal≠ | 1995 | 2006 | 1960 |
| Pengasas≠ | Francis Diebold & Roberto Mariano | Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White | M. A. Efroymson |
| Jenis≠ | Non-parametric forecast comparison test | Non-nested forecast comparison test | Automated variable selection |
| Sumber perintis≠ | Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 253–263. DOI ↗ | Giacomini, R., & White, H. (2006). Tests of conditional predictive ability. Econometrica, 74(6), 1545–1578. DOI ↗ | Efroymson, M. A. (1960). Multiple regression analysis. In A. Ralston & H. S. Wilf (Eds.), Mathematical Methods for Digital Computers (pp. 191–203). Wiley. link ↗ |
| Alias≠ | DM Test, Test of Equal Forecast Accuracy, Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test, Tahmin Doğruluğu Eşitliği Testi | GW Test, Conditional Predictive Ability Test, Giacomini-White CPA Test, Koşullu Tahmin Yeteneği Testi | stepwise selection, forward stepwise regression, backward stepwise regression, forward-backward selection |
| Berkaitan≠ | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Ringkasan≠ | The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test, introduced by Diebold and Mariano in 1995, is a widely used non-parametric procedure for formally comparing the predictive accuracy of two competing forecasting models. It evaluates whether the difference in forecast errors between two models is statistically significant, without requiring nested models or specific distributional assumptions about the forecasts, making it broadly applicable across economics, finance, and time-series analysis. | The Giacomini-White (GW) test, introduced by Raffaella Giacomini and Halbert White in 2006, evaluates whether two competing forecasting methods have equal conditional predictive ability given information available at the time of forecast. Unlike unconditional tests such as the Diebold-Mariano test, it asks whether one method systematically outperforms the other in specific economic or market conditions, making it especially useful for practitioners who need state-dependent forecast comparisons. | Stepwise regression is an automated variable selection procedure for multiple linear regression that adds or removes predictor variables one at a time according to a statistical criterion, typically the F-statistic or a p-value threshold. The forward-selection algorithm was formally described by Efroymson (1960) and the bidirectional variant was popularised by Draper and Smith in their landmark 1966 text Applied Regression Analysis. Despite widespread historical use, the method is now widely critiqued, making its documentation essential in any canonical methods library. |
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