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표적 최대우도추정법 (TMLE)×이중 기계 학습×
분야인과추론인과추론
계열Machine learningMachine learning
기원 연도20062018
창시자Mark van der Laan & Daniel RubinVictor Chernozhukov et al.
유형Semiparametric estimatorSemiparametric causal estimation
원전van der Laan, M. J., & Rubin, D. (2006). Targeted maximum likelihood learning. The International Journal of Biostatistics, 2(1). DOI ↗Chernozhukov, V., Chetverikov, D., Demirer, M., Duflo, E., Hansen, C., Newey, W., & Robins, J. (2018). Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. The Econometrics Journal, 21(1), C1–C68. DOI ↗
별칭Targeted Learning, TMLE, Targeted MLE, Hedeflenmiş Maksimum Olabilirlik TahminiDebiased Machine Learning, Neyman Orthogonal Score Estimation, Partialing-Out Lasso, Çift Makine Öğrenmesi
관련33
요약Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) is a semiparametric, doubly robust causal inference method introduced by Mark van der Laan and Daniel Rubin in 2006. It combines flexible machine learning models for both the outcome and the treatment assignment mechanism, then applies a targeting step that re-fits the initial outcome model specifically to reduce bias for a pre-specified causal estimand such as the average treatment effect. TMLE is widely used in epidemiology, biostatistics, and health economics when estimating causal effects from observational data.Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML), introduced by Chernozhukov et al. (2018), is a semiparametric framework for estimating causal or structural parameters in the presence of high-dimensional controls. It uses flexible machine learning methods to model nuisance functions—the conditional expectations of the outcome and the treatment given covariates—and then constructs a debiased estimator of the target parameter that achieves root-n consistency and valid inference despite the regularization bias inherent in high-dimensional settings.
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