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상태 공간 모형 (칼만 필터)×구조 시계열 모형 (기본 구조 모형)×
분야계량경제학계량경제학
계열Regression modelRegression model
기원 연도19901990
창시자Harvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filterAndrew C. Harvey
유형State space time series modelState-space (unobserved components) time series model
원전Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0521405737
별칭state space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter)BSM, basic structural model, unobserved components model, Yapısal Zaman Serisi Modeli (BSM)
관련44
요약A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases.The Structural Time Series Model, in its Basic Structural Model (BSM) form, is Andrew Harvey's state-space approach that decomposes a series into separate stochastic trend, seasonal, cyclical, and irregular components. Developed in Harvey's 1990 treatment, it is prized for interpretability and component decomposition where ARIMA only delivers a black-box fit.
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