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Risk-Needs Assessment×Recidivism Survival Analysis×
분야CriminologyCriminology
계열Process / pipelineSurvival analysis
기원 연도19901988
창시자Donald A. Andrews & James BontaDavid R. Cox (method); Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte (criminological application)
유형Structured offender risk/needs assessment frameworkTime-to-event regression for reoffending
원전Andrews, D. A., & Bonta, J. (2010). The Psychology of Criminal Conduct (5th ed.). Routledge/Anderson. ISBN: 9781422463291Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression models and life-tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 34(2), 187–202. DOI ↗
별칭RNR Assessment, Risk-Need-Responsivity Model, Risk/Needs Assessment, Criminogenic Needs AssessmentTime-to-Recidivism Modeling, Recidivism Hazard Modeling, Failure-Time Analysis of Reoffending, Survival Analysis of Reoffending
관련44
요약Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) assessment is the dominant framework for structured assessment of justice-involved people, scoring an offender's criminogenic risk and needs to decide who receives intervention, what should be targeted, and how it should be delivered. Formulated by Donald Andrews and James Bonta, it organizes the strongest predictors of reoffending into the 'Central Eight' and converts them into a total risk score that guides the intensity of correctional supervision and treatment.Recidivism survival analysis models the time from a release or index event until an individual reoffends, treating reoffending as a time-to-event ('failure') outcome with censoring for those not observed to fail. It applies survival methods — Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional-hazards regression, and split-population models — to answer not just whether someone recidivates but how quickly and what raises or lowers that risk over time.
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