방법 비교

	정책 시나리오 미시모의	확률적 미시모의시뮬레이션
분야	시뮬레이션	시뮬레이션
계열	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
기원 연도	1957	1957
창시자	Guy H. Orcutt	Guy H. Orcutt
유형	Simulation — individual-level policy scenario analysis	Stochastic individual-level simulation
원전	Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123.	Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123.
별칭	PSM, Policy Microsimulation, Scenario-Based Microsimulation, Policy Impact Microsimulation	Probabilistic Microsimulation, Monte Carlo Microsimulation, Stochastic Micro-simulation, SMSM
관련	5	6
요약	Policy Scenario Microsimulation applies microsimulation methods to evaluate and compare the distributional and aggregate effects of alternative policy scenarios on a synthetic population. By simulating individual-level behaviour under each policy regime, researchers can measure winners and losers, fiscal costs, and equity outcomes before real implementation.	Stochastic Microsimulation tracks a large population of individual units — people, households, or firms — through time by applying random draws from empirically estimated probability distributions at each transition event. Unlike deterministic counterparts, every state change is decided by chance, preserving realistic heterogeneity and allowing rigorous uncertainty quantification across multiple simulation runs.