방법 비교

	Normative Scenario Backcasting	Three Horizons Framework
분야	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
계열	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
기원 연도	1990	2016
창시자	John B. Robinson	Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson, Graham Leicester (International Futures Forum)
유형	Goal-oriented pipeline constructing a milestone pathway backward from a desired future image	Pattern-mapping pipeline for transformative change over time
원전	Robinson, J. B. (1990). Futures under glass: A recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures, 22(8), 820-842.	Sharpe, B., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., Lyon, A., & Fazey, I. (2016). Three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 47.
별칭	Normative Backcasting, Scenario Backcasting, Goal-Oriented Backcasting, Desired-Future Backcasting	Three Horizons Model, 3H Framework, Three Horizons Mapping, H1-H2-H3 Pathways
관련	4	3
요약	Normative scenario backcasting inverts the usual direction of futures work: instead of projecting forward from the present to ask what is likely, it starts from an explicit image of a desired future and works backward to construct the path of milestones, conditions, and actions that would lead there. John Robinson introduced the approach in 1990 as a method for people who 'hate to predict,' arguing that when the goal is to assess whether and how a normatively preferred future could be reached, forecasting the probable is the wrong tool. Backcasting instead asks what would have to happen, in what order, for the desired endpoint to come about. Distinct from generic policy backcasting, the normative scenario variant centres on first articulating a rich, value-laden scenario image of the endpoint and then deriving the pathway from it. As Bishop, Hines and Collins note in their survey of scenario techniques, this goal-driven logic makes backcasting a natural partner to scenario methods wherever the aim is not to anticipate the future but to deliberately work toward a chosen one.	The Three Horizons framework is a structured way of thinking about transformative change by mapping three overlapping curves of activity across time. Developed within the International Futures Forum and given its definitive articulation by Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson, Graham Leicester and colleagues in their 2016 Ecology and Society paper, it distinguishes the first horizon (H1), the dominant present system that is declining in its fit with a changing world; the third horizon (H3), an emerging and viable future pattern that is currently marginal but growing; and the second horizon (H2), the turbulent zone of transition in which entrepreneurial innovations and experiments compete, some carrying the system toward H3 and others merely propping up H1. Rather than predicting a single future, the framework is a pathways practice that helps groups see the present as a contested landscape of patterns and locate their own intentions and actions within it.