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Near-Repeat Analysis×Routine Activity Theory×
분야CriminologyCriminology
계열Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
기원 연도20031979
창시자Michael Townsley, Shane Johnson & Kate BowersLawrence E. Cohen & Marcus Felson
유형Space-time clustering test for crime contagionTheoretical framework for explaining the occurrence of predatory crime
원전Townsley, M., Homel, R., & Chaseling, J. (2003). Infectious burglaries: A test of the near repeat hypothesis. British Journal of Criminology, 43(3), 615–633. DOI ↗Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4), 588–608. DOI ↗
별칭Near Repeat Calculator Method, Space-Time Near-Repeat Analysis, Near-Repeat Victimization, Contagion Crime Pattern AnalysisRAT, Routine Activities Approach, Crime Triangle Framework, Cohen-Felson Theory
관련44
요약Near-repeat analysis tests whether crimes cluster in space and time beyond chance: after a crime occurs, are nearby locations at elevated risk for a short period? Developed in the early 2000s by Townsley, Johnson, Bowers and colleagues for burglary, it formalizes the 'contagion' or 'communicable disease' pattern of crime using a Knox space-time test against a Monte Carlo reference distribution.Routine activity theory explains predatory crime not by the supply of motivated offenders but by the everyday structure of legal activities that brings offenders, targets, and the absence of guardians together in space and time. Proposed by Lawrence Cohen and Marcus Felson in 1979, it argues that crime rates can rise even when offender motivation is constant, because changes in how people work, shop, and spend leisure time alter the opportunities for crime.
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