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다수준 베이지안 모형 평균화×다수준 MCMC (Multilevel MCMC)×
분야베이지안베이지안
계열Bayesian methodsBayesian methods
기원 연도1999–2000s1990s
창시자Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery, Volinsky (BMA foundation); multilevel extension developed across the late 1990s–2000sGelfand & Smith (sampling-based approach); multilevel extension developed through 1990s Bayesian hierarchical modeling literature
유형Bayesian ensemble / model selectionBayesian computational inference
원전Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E. & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382-401. link ↗Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955
별칭ML-BMA, hierarchical Bayesian model averaging, multilevel BMA, Bayesian model averaging in multilevel modelshierarchical MCMC, multilevel Bayesian sampling, MLMCMC, hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo
관련66
요약Multilevel Bayesian model averaging (ML-BMA) extends classical Bayesian model averaging to grouped or hierarchically structured data. Rather than committing to a single multilevel model specification, it computes a weighted average of predictions and parameter estimates across a set of candidate multilevel models, weighting each model by its posterior probability given the data. The result accounts simultaneously for uncertainty in the grouping structure, fixed effects, random effects, and covariate selection.Multilevel MCMC applies Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to hierarchical (multilevel) Bayesian models. It draws samples from the joint posterior of both group-level and population-level parameters simultaneously, propagating uncertainty across levels and enabling inference in clustered or nested data structures where observations within groups share common distributional characteristics.
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