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Multi-Criteria Policy Analysis×Policy Delphi×
분야Public PolicyPublic Policy
계열MCDMProcess / pipeline
기원 연도20021970
창시자Valerie Belton & Theodor Stewart (synthesis); MCDA traditionMurray Turoff
유형Multi-criteria decision analysis applied to policy appraisalStructured, iterative expert-deliberation technique for policy
원전Belton, V., & Stewart, T. J. (2002). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. ISBN: 9780792375050Turoff, M. (1970). The design of a policy Delphi. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2(2), 149–171. DOI ↗
별칭Multi-Criteria Analysis for Policy, MCDA Policy Appraisal, MCA in Policy, Multi-Criteria Policy AppraisalPolicy Delphi Technique, Turoff Policy Delphi, Decision Delphi
관련33
요약Multi-criteria policy analysis applies multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to appraise and rank policy options against several, often conflicting, objectives that cannot be reduced to a single money metric. Each option is scored on a set of explicit criteria — economic, social, environmental, distributional — the criteria are weighted to reflect their relative importance, and the scores are aggregated into an overall value that ranks the options. Set out comprehensively in Belton and Stewart's 2002 textbook and operationalised for government in the UK's widely used Multi-Criteria Analysis Manual, the approach makes the trade-offs in a policy decision transparent and structured rather than implicit.The policy Delphi is a structured, iterative technique for eliciting and organising informed opinion on contested policy issues. Unlike the classical Delphi, which seeks consensus on a forecast, the policy Delphi is explicitly designed to generate the strongest possible opposing positions on a policy question and to expose the full range of options, supporting arguments and disagreements among a panel of knowledgeable stakeholders. Introduced by Murray Turoff in 1970, it conducts several anonymous rounds in which participants rate policy statements on dimensions such as desirability and feasibility, see aggregated feedback and the reasoning behind divergent views, and revise their positions — surfacing structured intelligence for decision-makers rather than a forced agreement.
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