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| 이주 모형 (밀어내기-끌어당기기 / 다지역)× | 코호트-컴포넌트 인구 추계× | |
|---|---|---|
| 분야 | 인구학 | 인구학 |
| 계열≠ | Regression model | Process / pipeline |
| 기원 연도≠ | 1966 | 2001 |
| 창시자≠ | Everett Lee | Preston, Heuveline & Guillot |
| 유형≠ | Theoretical-quantitative migration framework | Demographic projection pipeline |
| 원전≠ | Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. DOI ↗ | Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2 |
| 별칭 | Push-Pull Migration Theory, Multiregional Migration Model, Lee Migration Framework, Göç Modelleri | Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu |
| 관련 | 3 | 3 |
| 요약≠ | Migration models are quantitative frameworks for explaining and forecasting population movement between geographic units. Lee's (1966) push-pull theory classifies factors at origin and destination into positive and negative forces, modulated by intervening obstacles. Widely used by demographers, regional planners, and policy researchers to project labor mobility, refugee flows, and urbanization trends across national and subnational geographies. | Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide. |
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