방법 비교

	고장수목 분석 (FTA)	베이즈 네트워크	사건수 분석 (ETA)	통계적 신뢰성 분석
분야	신뢰성	베이지안	신뢰성	신뢰성
계열	Process / pipeline	Bayesian methods	Process / pipeline	Regression model
기원 연도	1981	1988	2002	1998
창시자	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)	Judea Pearl	Andrews & Moss	William Meeker & Luis Escobar
유형	Deductive top-down failure analysis	Probabilistic graphical model	Forward inductive logic tree	Parametric lifetime modeling
원전	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.	Pearl, J. (1988). Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference. Morgan Kaufmann. ISBN: 978-1558604797	Andrews, J. D., & Moss, T. R. (2002). Reliability and Risk Assessment (2nd ed.). Professional Engineering Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-86058-290-5	Meeker, W. Q., & Escobar, L. A. (1998). Statistical Methods for Reliability Data. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0-471-14328-4
별칭	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi	Bayes network, belief network, probabilistic graphical model, directed graphical model	ETA, Event Sequence Diagram Analysis, Initiating Event Analysis, Olay Ağacı Analizi	Life Data Analysis, Survival Analysis (Engineering), Time-to-Failure Analysis, Güvenilirlik Analizi
관련	3	4	2	3
요약	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.	A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model, introduced by Judea Pearl in 1988, that encodes a set of variables and their conditional dependencies as a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Each node represents a variable; each directed edge encodes a direct probabilistic influence. By combining Bayes' rule with the graph's conditional independence structure, the model supports reasoning under uncertainty — computing the probability of any variable given observed evidence about others.	Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a forward inductive technique used in reliability and risk engineering to model the possible outcomes that follow an initiating event. Starting from a single undesired event, ETA traces all subsequent event sequences through a binary branching tree representing the success or failure of safety barriers and protective systems. Introduced formally in reliability and risk literature by Andrews and Moss (2002), it is widely applied in nuclear, chemical, and aerospace industries to quantify accident sequence probabilities and guide safety decision-making.	Statistical reliability analysis models the time-to-failure of components, systems, or products using parametric lifetime distributions fitted to observed or censored failure data. Formalized comprehensively by William Q. Meeker and Luis A. Escobar in their 1998 Wiley monograph, the framework integrates maximum likelihood estimation, censoring mechanisms, and distributional diagnostics to produce probability-of-failure curves, hazard rates, and quantile estimates that support design, warranty, and maintenance decisions.