방법 비교

	간헐적 수요를 위한 크로스턴 방법	세타 방법(The Theta Method)
분야	계량경제학	계량경제학
계열	Regression model	Regression model
기원 연도	1972	2000
창시자	J. D. Croston (1972)	Assimakopoulos & Nikolopoulos
유형	Intermittent demand time-series forecasting	Univariate time-series forecasting model
원전	Croston, J. D. (1972). Forecasting and Stock Control for Intermittent Demands. Operational Research Quarterly, 23(3), 289-303.	Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K. (2000). The Theta Model: A Decomposition Approach to Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 521-530.
별칭	Croston method, intermittent demand forecasting, Croston Yöntemi — Aralıklı Talep Tahmini	theta model, theta forecasting, Theta Yöntemi — M3 Tahmin Yarışması Birincisi
관련	4	4
요약	Croston's method, introduced by J. D. Croston in 1972, is a time-series forecasting technique built for intermittent demand series in which periods of zero demand are frequent. Instead of forecasting the raw series, it models the size of demand when it occurs and the interval between demand occurrences as two separate processes.	The Theta Method is a univariate time-series forecasting model introduced by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos in 2000. It decomposes a series into two theta lines that capture its long-run trend and its short-run dynamics, forecasts each line separately, and combines them by a weighted average. Its simplicity and accuracy made it the winner of the M3 forecasting competition.