방법 비교

	Historical Process Tracing	Longue Duree Analysis
분야	Historical Institutionalism	Historiography
계열	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
기원 연도	2005	1958
창시자	Alexander George and Andrew Bennett	Fernand Braudel
유형	causal-framework	analytical-framework
원전	George, A. L., & Bennett, A. (2005). Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. MIT Press. ISBN: 9780262572224	Braudel, F. (1958). Histoire et sciences sociales: La longue duree. Annales. Economies, Societes, Civilisations, 13(4), 725-753.
별칭	Causal-process tracing, Within-case mechanism tracing, Historical mechanism analysis, Causal-process observation method	Annales structural history, History of deep structures, Geohistorical longue duree, Braudelian time-scale analysis
관련	3	3
요약	Historical process tracing is a within-case method for establishing causation by following a hypothesized mechanism step by step through the sequence of events that links a cause to an outcome. Systematized for the social sciences by Alexander George and Andrew Bennett and refined by James Mahoney, the approach treats history not as a source of correlations across cases but as a chain of intervening steps whose presence or absence can confirm or refute rival explanations. Instead of asking whether a cause covaries with an outcome across many units, process tracing asks whether the connecting mechanism actually operated in the case at hand, examining diagnostic pieces of evidence, causal-process observations, against the predictions of competing hypotheses. Drawing on the logic of Bayesian updating and on tests such as the hoop test and the smoking-gun test, it offers a disciplined way to leverage rich qualitative detail for strong causal inference in single cases and small comparisons typical of historical institutionalism.	Longue duree analysis is the signature method of Fernand Braudel and the Annales school, organizing historical inquiry around the deep, slow-moving structures that shape human possibility across centuries rather than the rapid succession of political events. Braudel famously distinguished three temporalities: the near-immobile time of geography and environment (the longue duree), the medium-rhythm time of economic and social cycles (the conjoncture), and the fast, deceptive time of events (l'histoire evenementielle). The longue duree foregrounds mountains, seas, climate, trade routes, demographic regimes, and collective mentalities as the durable scaffolding within which short-term action unfolds. By privileging structures that change so slowly they appear almost static, the method reorients explanation away from kings and battles toward the material and mental constraints that condition entire civilizations. It demands sources and chronologies measured in centuries, treating the present as a thin film atop vast geological and cultural sediment.