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Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables×안정 인구 이론×
분야인구학인구학
계열Survival analysisRegression model
기원 연도19661972
창시자Ansley J. Coale & Paul DemenyAlfred J. Lotka; Ansley Coale
유형Empirical system of standard age patterns of mortalityMathematical demographic model
원전Coale, A. J., Demeny, P., & Vaughan, B. (1983). Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations (2nd ed.). Academic Press, New York. ISBN: 9780121770808Coale, A. J. (1972). The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0-691-09357-4
별칭Coale-Demeny Life Tables, Regional Model Life Tables, Coale-Demeny SystemLotka-Coale Stable Population Model, Stable Age Distribution Theory, Stationary Population Theory, Kararlı Nüfus Teorisi
관련42
요약The Coale-Demeny regional model life tables are a system of standard age patterns of mortality, distilled from hundreds of empirical life tables into four regional families — North, South, East, and West — each indexed by a mortality level. Given only a single summary of mortality, such as life expectancy at birth or a child-survival measure, the system supplies a complete, internally consistent age schedule of death rates. For decades they have been the default tool for inferring full mortality patterns in populations with incomplete or unreliable death data, especially in developing countries and historical demography.Stable Population Theory is a mathematical framework in demography that describes the age structure and growth dynamics of a closed population subject to constant age-specific fertility and mortality schedules over a long period. Foundational work by Alfred J. Lotka established the core integral equation in the early twentieth century, and Ansley Coale's 1972 mathematical synthesis became the definitive theoretical reference, showing that any population exposed to invariant vital rates will converge to a unique stable age distribution growing at a fixed intrinsic rate of natural increase.
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