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| 인과 충격 분석× | 성향 점수 매칭× | |
|---|---|---|
| 분야≠ | 인과추론 | 연구 통계 |
| 계열≠ | Regression model | Process / pipeline |
| 기원 연도≠ | 2015 | 1983 |
| 창시자≠ | Kay H. Brodersen, Fabian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, Steven L. Scott (Google) | Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin |
| 유형≠ | Bayesian causal inference / counterfactual forecasting | Method |
| 원전≠ | Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274. DOI ↗ | Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55. DOI ↗ |
| 별칭≠ | CausalImpact, BSTS causal inference, Bayesian causal impact, counterfactual time-series analysis | PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance |
| 관련≠ | 5 | 3 |
| 요약≠ | Causal Impact Analysis, introduced by Brodersen et al. (2015) at Google, uses Bayesian structural time-series models to estimate what would have happened to an outcome had an intervention never occurred. By constructing a probabilistic counterfactual from pre-treatment data and control covariates, it quantifies point-in-time and cumulative treatment effects with full posterior uncertainty intervals. | Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias. |
| ScholarGate데이터셋 ↗ |
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