방법 비교

	Autoformer: 장기 시계열 예측을 위한 분해 트랜스포머	ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) 모형	FEDformer: 주파수 강화 분해 트랜스포머	TimesNet: 시계열을 위한 시간적 2D-변동성 모델링
분야	딥러닝	계량경제학	딥러닝	딥러닝
계열	Machine learning	Regression model	Machine learning	Machine learning
기원 연도	2021	2015	2022	2023
창시자	Haixu Wu et al. (Tsinghua)	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Tian Zhou et al.	Haixu Wu et al.
유형	Decomposition-based deep forecasting model	Univariate time-series model	Frequency-domain decomposed Transformer for time-series forecasting	2D convolutional time-series model
원전	Wu, H., Xu, J., Wang, J., & Long, M. (2021). Autoformer: Decomposition transformers with auto-correlation for long-term series forecasting. NeurIPS, 34.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Zhou, T., Ma, Z., Wen, Q., Wang, X., Sun, L., & Jin, R. (2022). FEDformer: Frequency enhanced decomposed transformer for long-term series forecasting. ICML.	Wu, H., Hu, T., Liu, Y., Zhou, H., Wang, J., & Long, M. (2023). TimesNet: Temporal 2D-variation modeling for general time series analysis. ICLR.
별칭	Auto-Correlation Transformer, Decomposition Transformer, Series Decomposition Forecaster, Oto-Korelasyon Ayrışım Transformer	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer, FED-Transformer, Frequency Domain Transformer, Frekans Tabanlı Ayrıştırılmış Dönüştürücü	Temporal 2D-Variation Network, TimesNet Model, 2D Time-Series Network, Zamansal 2B Varyasyon Ağı
관련	4	5	3	2
요약	Autoformer is a deep learning architecture for long-term time-series forecasting, introduced by Wu et al. from Tsinghua University at NeurIPS 2021. It replaces the standard self-attention mechanism with an Auto-Correlation mechanism that exploits periodic dependencies in the frequency domain, and embeds a progressive series decomposition block throughout the encoder and decoder to separately model trend and seasonal components.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	FEDformer is a Transformer-based architecture for long-term multivariate time-series forecasting, introduced by Zhou et al. at ICML 2022. Its core innovation is the combination of seasonal-trend decomposition with frequency-domain attention: instead of computing full token-to-token attention in the time domain, FEDformer projects queries, keys, and values into the frequency domain via Fourier or wavelet transforms and operates on a randomly selected subset of frequency components, achieving linear complexity while preserving global temporal structure.	TimesNet is a general-purpose time-series model introduced by Wu et al. at ICLR 2023. Its central idea is that univariate or multivariate time series can be reinterpreted as collections of two-dimensional temporal maps by reshaping the 1D signal according to its dominant periodicities, detected via Fast Fourier Transform. This 1D-to-2D transformation exposes both intraperiod patterns (within one cycle) and interperiod trends (across cycles), enabling powerful 2D convolutional architectures to model temporal variation.