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Altman Z-Score: 기업 파산 예측×신용 점수화 (스코어카드, WoE/IV)×DuPont 분석×
분야재무학재무학재무학
계열Regression modelRegression modelRegression model
기원 연도196819972008
창시자Edward AltmanHand & Henley; Thomas, Edelman & CrookDuPont Corporation; Soliman
유형Multiple discriminant analysis scoring modelSupervised binary classification modelProfitability decomposition framework
원전Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. DOI ↗Hand, D. J., & Henley, W. E. (1997). Statistical classification methods in consumer credit scoring: a review. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 160(3), 523–541. DOI ↗Soliman, M. T. (2008). The use of DuPont analysis by market participants. The Accounting Review, 83(3), 823–853. DOI ↗
별칭Altman's Z-Score Model, Multiple Discriminant Analysis Bankruptcy Model, Z-Score Financial Distress Model, Altman Z-SkoruCredit Scorecard, Application Scoring, Behavioural Scoring, Kredi SkorlamaDuPont Decomposition, DuPont Identity, Return on Equity Decomposition, DuPont Analizi
관련332
요약The Altman Z-Score is a linear discriminant model developed by Edward I. Altman in 1968 to predict corporate bankruptcy using five accounting-based financial ratios. Derived through multiple discriminant analysis on a matched sample of 66 US manufacturing firms, the model combines liquidity, profitability, leverage, solvency, and activity ratios into a single composite score that classifies firms as financially sound, distressed, or in a grey zone.Credit scoring is a statistical technique that estimates the probability that a borrower will default on a financial obligation. Using Weight of Evidence (WoE) binning, Information Value (IV) variable selection, and logistic regression, it converts raw applicant data into a single integer score. Formalized by Hand and Henley (1997) and elaborated by Thomas, Edelman, and Crook, the scorecard framework has become the regulatory standard for retail credit risk assessment in banking, lending, and insurance.DuPont Analysis is a financial performance framework that decomposes Return on Equity (ROE) into three multiplicative components: net profit margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier. Originally developed by engineers at DuPont Corporation in the early 1920s, the method gained renewed academic prominence through Soliman (2008), who demonstrated that market participants exploit DuPont decompositions to forecast future earnings and to distinguish sustainable from transient profitability.
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