방법 비교

	Agent-Based Model of Competitive Strategy	Strategic Scenario Planning
분야	전략경영	전략경영
계열	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
기원 연도	2007	1995
창시자	Jason P. Davis, Kathleen M. Eisenhardt & Christopher B. Bingham (simulation-methods roadmap)	Pierre Wack; Paul Schoemaker; Kees van der Heijden
유형	Agent-based computational simulation of competitive strategy	Structured foresight process for strategy under deep uncertainty
원전	Davis, J. P., Eisenhardt, K. M., & Bingham, C. B. (2007). Developing Theory Through Simulation Methods. Academy of Management Review, 32(2), 480-499.	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
별칭	Competitive Strategy Agent-Based Simulation, Firm-Interaction Simulation Modeling, Computational Model of Competitive Dynamics, Multi-Firm Agent-Based Strategy Model	Intuitive-Logics Scenario Method, Scenario-Based Strategic Planning, Strategic Foresight Scenarios, Shell-Style Scenario Planning
관련	3	4
요약	An agent-based model of competitive strategy represents firms as autonomous, heterogeneous, adaptive agents whose decision rules and local interactions generate emergent industry-level dynamics that no single firm designs. Davis, Eisenhardt, and Bingham's 2007 roadmap for developing theory through simulation places this kind of computational modeling in the sweet spot between inductive case research and formal mathematics, well suited to longitudinal, nonlinear, and interactive strategy phenomena. Instead of solving for an equilibrium, the analyst builds firms with strategies, lets them compete over many simulated periods, and studies the market structures, survival patterns, and performance dispersions that emerge. The method gives strategy researchers a controlled laboratory for theory building about competitive dynamics that are too complex and path-dependent for closed-form analysis.	Strategic scenario planning is a structured foresight method that helps organizations make decisions under deep uncertainty by constructing a small set of internally consistent, sharply divergent stories about how the future could unfold. The dominant 'intuitive-logics' tradition was pioneered at Royal Dutch/Shell by Pierre Wack, whose 1985 Harvard Business Review account showed how scenarios prepared Shell's managers for the 1973 oil shock by changing how they perceived their world rather than by predicting it. Paul Schoemaker's 1995 Sloan Management Review article codified the approach into a repeatable step-by-step process for managers, and Kees van der Heijden's 1996 book reframed scenarios as the centerpiece of an ongoing 'strategic conversation' through which an organization builds shared understanding and adaptive capacity. The aim is not to forecast a single future but to make strategy robust across several plausible ones.