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	時変パラメータSARIMAモデル（TVP-SARIMA）	状態空間モデル（カルマンフィルタ）
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1990s	1990
提唱者	Harvey, A. C.; Durbin, J. & Koopman, S. J. (state-space framework)	Harvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filter
種類	Time-varying state-space model	State space time series model
原典	Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780521321969	Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press.
別名	TVP-SARIMA, time-varying SARIMA, state-space SARIMA, adaptive SARIMA	state space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter)
関連	4	4
概要	The Time-Varying Parameter SARIMA model extends the classical SARIMA framework by allowing autoregressive and moving-average coefficients to evolve over time. Cast as a state-space system and estimated with the Kalman filter, it captures both seasonal patterns and structural change within a single unified model.	A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases.