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	教育研究における合成コントロール法	中断時系列分析（Interrupted Time Series, ITS）
分野	因果推論	因果推論
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	2003-2010	2002
提唱者	Alberto Abadie, Alexis Diamond, and Jens Hainmueller	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)
種類	Quasi-experimental causal inference	Quasi-experimental segmented regression
原典	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
別名	SCM in education, synthetic control, synthetic comparator, SCM	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi
関連	5	5
概要	The Synthetic Control Method (SCM) estimates the causal effect of an education policy or intervention by constructing a weighted combination of untreated comparison units — the synthetic control — that closely mimics the treated unit's pre-intervention trajectory. Developed by Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller, it is especially valuable when only one or a small number of schools, districts, or countries receive a policy change and no natural comparison exists.	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.