手法を比較

	閾値およびスムーズ遷移VAR（TVAR / STVAR）	ARCH-LM検定（ボラティリティ・クラスタリングのため）
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1998	1982
提唱者	Tsay (multivariate threshold modelling)	Robert F. Engle
種類	Nonlinear multivariate time-series model	Lagrange multiplier diagnostic test for conditional heteroscedasticity
原典	Tsay, R. S. (1998). Testing and Modeling Multivariate Threshold Models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93(443), 1188-1202.	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007.
別名	TVAR, STVAR, regime-switching VAR, threshold VAR	ARCH-LM Testi ve Volatilite Kümelenmesi Analizi, ARCH LM test, Engle's ARCH test, test for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity
関連	5	6
概要	Threshold VAR and Smooth-Transition VAR are nonlinear multivariate time-series models in which the coefficients of a vector autoregression switch between regimes according to a threshold variable. Building on Tsay's 1998 treatment of multivariate threshold models, they capture different dynamic structures across phases such as the business cycle, financial crises, or policy differences.	The ARCH-LM test is Robert Engle's (1982) Lagrange multiplier diagnostic for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the residuals of a fitted time-series model. It checks whether the error variance changes over time and clusters into calm and turbulent periods, and it is the standard pre-test run before fitting a GARCH-family volatility model.