手法を比較

	Scenario Axes Method	Cross-Impact Balance Analysis
分野	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1995	2006
提唱者	Paul J. H. Schoemaker; described in Bishop, Hines & Collins's survey of scenario techniques	Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle
種類	Deductive scenario-construction pipeline forming a 2x2 matrix from two critical uncertainties	Semi-quantitative scenario-construction pipeline
原典	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Weimer-Jehle, W. (2006). Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(4), 334-361.
別名	2x2 Scenario Matrix, Double-Uncertainty Axes, Deductive Scenario Method, Two-by-Two Scenario Method	CIB Analysis, Cross-Impact Balances, Balance Algorithm Scenario Analysis, Qualitative Systems Analysis (Weimer-Jehle)
関連	4	4
概要	The scenario axes method is the deductive, double-uncertainty technique at the heart of much modern scenario planning: take the two driving forces that matter most and are least predictable, cross them as orthogonal axes, and develop the four resulting quadrants into distinct, internally consistent scenarios. Paul Schoemaker's 1995 account of scenario planning as a tool for strategic thinking established the logic of building scenarios from a small set of critical uncertainties, and Bishop, Hines and Collins's survey of scenario techniques names the 2x2 axes approach as the most widely used deductive method. Its appeal is structural clarity: by reducing a tangle of forces to two key uncertainties and a clean matrix, it produces a manageable, memorable set of four contrasting futures that span the most important dimensions of uncertainty. Treated here as a standalone scenario-construction device, the method is prized for turning the open-ended art of scenario building into a disciplined, repeatable procedure.	Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis is a semi-quantitative foresight method that turns a panel of qualitative expert judgments into a small set of internally consistent scenarios. Introduced by Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle in 2006, CIB describes a system as a set of descriptors, each of which can take one of several discrete future states, and asks experts to judge, pairwise, how strongly each state promotes or restricts every other state. These judgments form a cross-impact matrix; a balance algorithm then searches the combinatorial space of state combinations for configurations in which every descriptor's chosen state is the one most strongly supported by all the others. These self-consistent combinations are the scenarios. CIB has become a standard tool for building qualitative socio-technical scenarios, including the shared socio-economic pathways used in climate research.