手法を比較

	SARIMAX	Holt-Winters三重指数平滑法	状態空間モデル（カルマンフィルタ）
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	2015	1960	1990
提唱者	Box & Jenkins (ARIMA framework); SARIMAX extension with exogenous regressors	Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters	Harvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filter
種類	Seasonal time-series regression model	Exponential smoothing forecasting model	State space time series model
原典	Hyndman, R. J. & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). Forecasting: Principles and Practice (3rd ed.). OTexts.	Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342.	Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press.
別名	seasonal ARIMA with exogenous variables, SARIMA with regressors, ARIMAX, SARIMAX — Dışsal Değişkenli Mevsimsel ARIMA	triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme	state space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter)
関連	4	4	4
概要	SARIMAX extends the seasonal ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) model by adding exogenous explanatory variables, so it can capture the effect of holidays, economic indicators, or policy variables on a time series. It combines non-seasonal and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average dynamics with external regressors, and is estimated by maximum likelihood in state-space form.	Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series.	A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases.