手法を比較

	ロバスト イベントツリー解析	イベントツリー解析 (ETA)
分野	実験計画法	信頼性
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1960s (ETA); robust extensions ~1990s–2000s	2002
提唱者	H.E. Lambert / Nuclear industry (ETA); robust extensions developed through aerospace and nuclear risk research	Andrews & Moss
種類	Probabilistic risk assessment with uncertainty propagation	Forward inductive logic tree
原典	Bedford, T., & Cooke, R. M. (2001). Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780521773201	Andrews, J. D., & Moss, T. R. (2002). Reliability and Risk Assessment (2nd ed.). Professional Engineering Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-86058-290-5
別名	Robust ETA, uncertainty-aware event tree analysis, ETA with uncertainty quantification, robust probabilistic event tree	ETA, Event Sequence Diagram Analysis, Initiating Event Analysis, Olay Ağacı Analizi
関連	6	2
概要	Robust Event Tree Analysis (Robust ETA) extends classical event tree analysis by explicitly accounting for uncertainty in the probability estimates assigned to each branch. Rather than treating branch probabilities as precise point values, the robust approach represents them as intervals, probability distributions, or imprecise probabilities, then propagates that uncertainty through the tree to produce outcome frequency ranges instead of single numbers. This gives decision-makers a clearer picture of the confidence in risk estimates under realistic conditions of incomplete or conflicting information.	Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a forward inductive technique used in reliability and risk engineering to model the possible outcomes that follow an initiating event. Starting from a single undesired event, ETA traces all subsequent event sequences through a binary branching tree representing the success or failure of safety barriers and protective systems. Introduced formally in reliability and risk literature by Andrews and Moss (2002), it is widely applied in nuclear, chemical, and aerospace industries to quantify accident sequence probabilities and guide safety decision-making.