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	Real Options Valuation	リスク中立評価
分野	経済学	数理ファイナンス
系統	Process / pipeline	Regression model
提唱年	1994	1979
提唱者	Stewart Myers (term); Dixit & Pindyck, Trigeorgis (theory)	John Harrison and David Kreps
種類	Valuation of managerial flexibility under uncertainty	Fundamental Principle
原典	Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 9780691034102	Harrison, J. M., & Kreps, D. M. (1979). Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets. Journal of Economic Theory, 20(3), 381-408.
別名	Real Options Analysis, ROV, Real Option Pricing, Investment Under Uncertainty	Risk-Neutral Measure, Q-Measure
関連	3	4
概要	Real options valuation applies the theory of financial options to real (physical, strategic) investment decisions, valuing the managerial flexibility to defer, expand, contract, switch, or abandon a project as uncertainty resolves over time. Where standard discounted-cash-flow analysis assumes a now-or-never commitment to a fixed plan, real options recognize that managers hold rights — not obligations — to act, and that this flexibility has value precisely because the future is uncertain. Using option-pricing and dynamic-programming methods, the approach values these embedded options and identifies the optimal timing and conditions for exercising them.	Risk-neutral valuation (1979) is the fundamental principle that derivative prices equal the expected payoff discounted at the risk-free rate, computed under a risk-neutral probability measure (Q-measure). This principle, formalized by Harrison and Kreps, eliminates the need to estimate risk premia and is the foundation of modern derivatives pricing.