手法を比較

	政策シナリオモンテカルロシミュレーション	確率的シナリオ分析
分野	シミュレーション	シミュレーション
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1990s–2000s	1955–1980s
提唱者	Developed within health economics and policy modeling communities; foundational work by Briggs, Claxton, and Sculpher	Dantzig, G. B.; Birge, J. R.; and others in stochastic programming tradition
種類	Probabilistic scenario simulation	Probabilistic scenario enumeration and evaluation
原典	Briggs, A. H., Claxton, K., & Sculpher, M. J. (2006). Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780198526629	Birge, J. R., Louveaux, F. (2011). Introduction to Stochastic Programming (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 9781461402374
別名	PS-MCS, Policy MC Simulation, Scenario-Based Monte Carlo, Policy Uncertainty Simulation	Probabilistic Scenario Analysis, SSA, Stochastic What-If Analysis, Monte Carlo Scenario Analysis
関連	4	4
概要	Policy Scenario Monte Carlo Simulation combines pre-defined discrete policy scenarios with probabilistic Monte Carlo sampling to quantify uncertainty in outcomes across each scenario. Rather than evaluating a single stochastic model, analysts define two or more policy alternatives and run thousands of Monte Carlo iterations within each, producing probability distributions of outcomes that support evidence-based policy comparison.	Stochastic Scenario Analysis evaluates a system or decision across multiple explicitly defined scenarios, each assigned a probability of occurrence. Unlike deterministic scenario analysis, it propagates uncertainty through probability distributions and computes expected outcomes, variance, and risk metrics across the scenario space, giving decision-makers a structured view of what could happen and how likely each outcome is.