手法を比較

	非線形自己回帰（NAR）モデル	ARMAモデル（自己回帰移動平均）
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1978-1990	1970
提唱者	Tong, H. (threshold AR); Terasvirta, T. (STAR variant)	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
種類	Nonlinear time series model	Time series model
原典	Tong, H. (1990). Non-Linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780198522201	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
別名	NAR model, nonlinear autoregression, NLAR, threshold autoregressive model	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)
関連	6	5
概要	The Nonlinear AR model extends the classical autoregressive framework by allowing the mapping from past values to the current value to follow an arbitrary or regime-switching nonlinear function. Major families include the Self-Exciting Threshold AR (SETAR), Smooth Transition AR (STAR), and neural network AR, each capturing different forms of asymmetry, regime shifts, or smooth nonlinear dynamics in univariate time series.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.