手法を比較

	マルコフ体制スイッチングモデル (MS-AR / MS-VAR)	最小二乗法 (OLS) 回帰	ベクトル自己回帰（VAR）モデル
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1989	2019	2005
提唱者	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares	Lütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition
種類	Regime-switching time series model	Linear regression	Multivariate time-series model
原典	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860	Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer.
別名	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu	vector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon
関連	5	5	4
概要	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).	Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005).