手法を比較

	マルコフ体制スイッチングモデル (MS-AR / MS-VAR)	ARIMA（自己回帰和分移動平均）モデル	最小二乗法 (OLS) 回帰
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1989	2015	2019
提唱者	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
種類	Regime-switching time series model	Univariate time-series model	Linear regression
原典	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
別名	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
関連	5	5	5
概要	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).