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| ホドリック-プレスコット・フィルター：マクロ経済時系列のトレンド・サイクル分解× | 状態空間モデル（カルマンフィルタ）× | |
|---|---|---|
| 分野 | 計量経済学 | 計量経済学 |
| 系統≠ | Process / pipeline | Regression model |
| 提唱年≠ | 1997 | 1990 |
| 提唱者≠ | Robert Hodrick & Edward Prescott | Harvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filter |
| 種類≠ | Penalized least-squares smoother | State space time series model |
| 原典≠ | Hodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1997). Postwar U.S. business cycles: An empirical investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1–16. DOI ↗ | Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗ |
| 別名 | Hodrick-Prescott Filter, HP Decomposition, Trend-Cycle Filter, HP Filtresi | state space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter) |
| 関連≠ | 3 | 4 |
| 概要≠ | The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a penalized least-squares technique used in macroeconomics and empirical finance to decompose a time series into a smooth long-run trend component and a short-run cyclical component. Introduced by Hodrick and Prescott (1997) using postwar U.S. business cycle data, it has become one of the most widely applied filters in business cycle analysis, monetary policy research, and applied econometrics. | A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases. |
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