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	Forensic Likelihood Ratio	ベイズ推論
分野	法科学	統計学
系統	Regression model	Bayesian methods
提唱年	2004	1763
提唱者	Colin Aitken & Franco Taroni	Thomas Bayes; Pierre-Simon Laplace
種類	Bayesian evidence evaluation model	Probabilistic inference paradigm
原典	Aitken, C. G. G., & Taroni, F. (2004). Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists (2nd ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-0-470-84367-3	Bayes, T. (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53, 370–418.
別名	Bayes Factor in Forensics, Forensic Evidence Weight, LR-Based Forensic Evaluation, Adli Olabilirlik Oranı	Bayes inference, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian updating, posterior inference
関連	3	3
概要	The Forensic Likelihood Ratio (LR) is a Bayesian framework for quantifying the weight of forensic evidence relative to two competing propositions — typically the prosecution and defence hypotheses. Formally developed and systematised by Colin Aitken and Franco Taroni in their 2004 Wiley monograph, the LR expresses how much more probable the observed evidence is under one hypothesis than under the other, providing the court with a single, interpretable number that separates the scientist's role from the fact-finder's role.	Bayesian inference is a statistical paradigm in which probability represents degrees of belief rather than long-run frequencies. It encodes prior knowledge about parameters in a prior distribution, combines that prior with the likelihood of observed data via Bayes' theorem, and produces a posterior distribution that quantifies updated uncertainty. The foundational theorem was published posthumously by Thomas Bayes in 1763 and subsequently systematized by Pierre-Simon Laplace in his 1812 Théorie analytique des probabilités.