手法を比較

	指数 GARCH (EGARCH)	マルコフ体制スイッチングモデル (MS-AR / MS-VAR)
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1991	1989
提唱者	Nelson	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)
種類	Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)	Regime-switching time series model
原典	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
別名	exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR
関連	4	5
概要	EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.