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	Duration Models in Politics	Cox Proportional Hazards
分野	Political Science	疫学
系統	Regression model	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1972	1972
提唱者	David R. Cox (Cox model); popularized in political science by Janet Box-Steffensmeier & Bradford Jones	Sir David Roxbee Cox
種類	Time-to-event regression model	Semi-parametric regression model
原典	Box-Steffensmeier, J. M., & Jones, B. S. (2004). Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780521546737	Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression models and life-tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 34(2), 187–202.
別名	Event history models, Survival models in political science, Hazard models, Time-to-event models in politics	Cox regression, Cox PH model, proportional hazards model, CPH
関連	3	5
概要	Duration models — also called event history or survival models — analyze the time until a political event occurs: how long a cabinet lasts before it falls, how long a war runs before it ends, how long a policy takes to be adopted, or how long a regime survives. Rather than asking only whether an event happens, these models ask when, modeling the hazard rate as a function of covariates while correctly handling censored cases that have not yet experienced the event. The Cox proportional hazards model and parametric alternatives such as the Weibull, popularized in political science by Box-Steffensmeier and Jones, form the core toolkit.	The Cox proportional hazards model is a semi-parametric regression method that estimates the effect of one or more covariates on the hazard — the instantaneous rate of an event such as death, relapse, or failure — while making no assumption about the shape of the baseline hazard function. Introduced by David Cox in 1972, it is the dominant tool for multivariable survival analysis in clinical and epidemiological research.