手法を比較

	劣化モデル	フォールトツリー解析 (FTA)	ワイブル生存回帰 (Weibull Parametric Survival Regression)
分野	信頼性	信頼性	生存時間解析
系統	Regression model	Process / pipeline	Survival analysis
提唱年	1998	1981	1951
提唱者	Meeker, Escobar & Lu	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)	Waloddi Weibull
種類	Stochastic degradation path model	Deductive top-down failure analysis	Fully parametric survival regression model
原典	Meeker, W. Q., Escobar, L. A., & Lu, C. J. (1998). Accelerated degradation tests: modeling and analysis. Technometrics, 40(2), 89–99.	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.	Kalbfleisch, J. D. & Prentice, R. L. (2002). The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data (2nd ed.). Wiley.
別名	Accelerated Degradation Testing, Degradation Path Models, Performance Degradation Analysis, Bozunma Modelleri	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi	weibull aft model, weibull survival model, parametric survival regression, Weibull Regresyonu — Parametrik Hayatta Kalma
関連	3	3	4
概要	Degradation models estimate product lifetime by tracking measurable performance characteristics—such as crack length, light output, or insulation resistance—over time rather than waiting for outright failure. Introduced in rigorous form by Meeker, Escobar, and Lu (1998), these models fit a stochastic degradation path to repeated measurements and define failure as the first time the characteristic crosses a predetermined threshold, enabling reliable lifetime inference from accelerated test data with very few or no observed failures.	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.	Weibull regression is a fully parametric survival model, formalised by Kalbfleisch and Prentice, that assumes survival times follow a Weibull distribution. A shape parameter controls whether the hazard increases, decreases, or remains constant over time, while covariates shift the scale of the distribution to express how predictors affect survival.