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	クレディビリティ理論	損失分布モデル
分野	保険数理学	保険数理学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1967	2012
提唱者	Hans Bühlmann	Klugman, Panjer & Willmot
種類	Weighted linear blend of individual and collective experience	Parametric probability model
原典	Bühlmann, H. (1967). Experience rating and credibility. ASTIN Bulletin, 4(3), 199–207.	Klugman, S. A., Panjer, H. H., & Willmot, G. E. (2012). Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (4th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1-118-31532-3
別名	Bühlmann Credibility, Experience Rating, Linear Credibility Estimator, Güvenilirlik Teorisi	Severity-Frequency Model, Aggregate Loss Model, Claim Size Distribution Model, Hasar Dağılımı Modeli
関連	3	3
概要	Credibility Theory is an actuarial framework for estimating the pure premium of an individual risk by blending its own observed loss experience with the collective (portfolio) mean. Introduced by Hans Bühlmann in 1967, the method derives the optimal linear combination—the credibility-weighted premium—that minimises mean squared error. It extends classical experience rating to a rigorous statistical footing rooted in Bayesian and linear estimation principles.	A Loss Distribution Model is a parametric statistical framework used in actuarial science to characterise the probabilistic behaviour of insurance claim amounts and frequencies. Developed comprehensively by Klugman, Panjer, and Willmot in their foundational text Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (first edition 1998, fourth edition 2012), these models underpin premium rating, reserving, reinsurance pricing, and regulatory capital calculations across the insurance and risk-management industries.