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	Conflict Recurrence Analysis	生存時間解析
分野	International Relations	研究統計
系統	Survival analysis	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2004	1958
提唱者	Civil-war recurrence literature (e.g., Barbara F. Walter)	Edward L. Kaplan and Paul Meier
種類	Survival/repeated-events analysis of renewed conflict	Method
原典	Walter, B. F. (2004). Does conflict beget conflict? Explaining recurring civil war. Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 371–388.	Kaplan, E. L., & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282), 457–481.
別名	Recurring Civil War Analysis, Conflict Relapse Analysis, Repeated-Conflict Survival Analysis, Conflict Recidivism Analysis	Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox regression, TTE analysis
関連	3	3
概要	Conflict recurrence analysis studies why and when conflicts that have ended return, treating renewed war as a time-to-event outcome. Most civil wars in recent decades have occurred in countries with a prior war, making recurrence a central puzzle. Using survival and repeated-events models — as in Barbara Walter's (2004) analysis of recurring civil war — researchers model the hazard that a post-conflict country relapses into violence as a function of how the war ended and the underlying conditions, while accounting for the fact that the same country can experience multiple conflict spells.	Survival analysis is a collection of statistical methods for modeling time from a defined starting point until an event of interest occurs (disease, recovery, death, equipment failure). Kaplan and Meier's nonparametric estimator (1958) and David Cox's proportional hazards model (1972) jointly enabled analysis of censored data—individuals whose event times are unknown because they left the study or were still event-free at follow-up. Indispensable in oncology, cardiology, infectious disease research, engineering reliability, and any field where time-to-event matters.